CLIMATE DIPLOMACY AND WATER SECURITY: THE INDUS WATERS TREATY UNDER CLIMATE STRESS

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly reshaping transboundary water systems, placing unprecedented pressure on existing governance frameworks. The Indus River Basin, shared primarily by India and Pakistan, is among the most climate-vulnerable river systems in the world due to its dependence on glacier melt, monsoon variability, and rapidly rising water demand. This paper critically examines the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) through the lens of climate diplomacy and water security, assessing whether a mid-twentieth-century treaty can remain effective under twenty-first-century climate stress. Drawing on climate science literature, treaty analysis, and transboundary water governance theory, the study argues that the IWT, while politically resilient, is institutionally ill-equipped to manage increasing hydrological uncertainty. Climate change amplifies flow variability, intensifies floods and droughts, and heightens downstream insecurity, transforming technical disagreements into diplomatic tensions. The absence of adaptive mechanisms, joint climate data frameworks, and basin-wide risk management tools renders the treaty vulnerable to progressive functional erosion rather than collapse. The paper concludes that without institutional adaptation, particularly through enhanced data sharing, climate-responsive governance, and cooperative risk-management mechanisms, the Indus Waters Treaty risks losing its effectiveness as a guarantor of water security and regional stability. The findings offer broader insights into climate diplomacy and the future of transboundary water treaties under non-stationary climatic conditions.