GEOPOLITICAL SHOCKS AND GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE: A MIXED-METHODS ANALYSIS OF THE RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR
Abstract
The current Russia-Ukraine war has immobilized the global supply chains, especially in vital areas of the world, including agriculture, energy, and transportation. Therefore, this article examines the financial strength of global supply chains against geopolitical disruption in the experimentation of mixed methods. Using the terms of quantitative analysis of trade data between January 2021 and December 2023, one can discover that Ukraine has reduced wheat exports by 40 % (150,000 to 90,000 metric tons), and Russia has decreased the export of natural gas to the EU by 65 % (150 bcm to 52 bcm). Recovery timeline by sector implies that manufacturing increased after 5 months, agriculture after 6 months, and energy after 8 months, and that they had an 18 %, 25%, and 35 % rise in costs, respectively. The twelve firm-level qualitative results in the case studies explain that 83 % of firms chose supplier diversification in response, with 75 % making inventory buffer and 67 % making digital infrastructure investments like AI. To a considerable extent, logistical bottlenecks and the inability to restore trade partially were increased by the institutional reaction, such as the EU Solidarity Lanes and expedited customs. Based on the Resource-Based View, Dynamic Capabilities, and Institutional Theory, the research predicts resilience as the outcome of the firm's agility, institutional responsiveness, and network adaptability. The results hence offer practical guidelines that companies and policymakers can adopt in creating a resilient and geopolitically safe supply network in the wake of heightened volatility in the world.
Keywords:
Supply Chain Resilience, Russia–Ukraine Conflict, Trade Disruption, Dynamic Capabilities, Institutional Response, Economic Resilience, Global Supply Chains
